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PKSG Working Paper Series

Working Paper PKWP1002

The weight of argument: A suggested interpretation

February 2010

Francesco Strati

In 1921 John Maynard Keynes published his famous dissertation “A Treatise On Probability” a fundamental book to understand his magnum opus “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money”. Although, as time goes by, his opinion about probability has rather become an inter-subjective theory; there is a concept which is fundamental for the General Theory’s framework: The weight of argument. This paper is intended to analyse a method by which one is able to compare several weights, and to explain what the argument’s meaning actually is.

Keywords: John Maynard Keynes, methodology, probability

JEL classification: B31: History of Economic Thought: Individuals B41: Economic Methodology D81: Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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