Global Capital, the Exchange Rate, and Policy (In)Effectiveness

By Biagio Bossone

PKES Working Paper 2113

September 2021, revised September 2021

In line with JMK’s liquidity preference theory, this article holds that in a world of highly internationally financially integrated economies the exchange rate between any two currencies is determined by the financial market views as to what its value is expected to be in the future. These views are influenced by the policy credibility that markets themselves attribute to the currency-issuing countries. After briefly reviewing the established theories of the exchange rate, the article proposes a very simple, aggregate model of equilibrium exchange rate determination based on market views and discusses its basic features and policy implications. It shows that whereas macro policy shocks in highly credible countries affect mostly real output with only a moderate impact on the exchange rate, the same shocks in poorly credible countries dissipate almost entirely in exchange rate movements. The exchange rate ultimately reflects the space that markets make available to national authorities for effective macro policies.

Keywords: Credibility; Exchange rate; Global investors and capital; Inflation; Macroeconomic policy

JEL classification: F41 F62 G15